trades have a solid future

Acute shortage forecast: B.C. will be unable to fuel its growing economy in 10 years as more than a quarter of the workforce retires, chartered accountants warn

The Vancouver Sun

Tuesday October 4, 2005

By Michael Kane

British Columbia faces acute worker shortages within the next decade, which will be made even worse by an expected education gap, the province's chartered accountants warned Monday.

More than one million job openings will be created by 2015 as the economy grows and more than one quarter of the current workforce retires. But the province has only 680,000 students in kindergarten through Grade 12. If they all stayed in B.C., that would still leave a shortfall of 363,000 potential workers.

As well, 73 per cent of jobs will require some form of post-secondary education, although only 59 per cent of British Columbians currently earn a diploma beyond high school. The education gap threatens to erode the province's competitiveness in the future if it is not addressed, the CAs reported as part of the annual BC Check-Up released Monday.

One major challenge is convincing young people and their parents that there are good career opportunities in the trades. Journeymen plumbers and electricians, for example, can earn $45-$50 an hour in their early 20s, said Robert Wall, of North Vancouver's Wall Mark Homes.

With retirements accounting for 558,000 of 1,043,000 job openings between 2003 and 2015, trade careers have a solid future. Even if the province drops mandatory retirement, many workers will be physically unable to continue in trades beyond age 65.

In the short-term, conditions have improved from a worker's perspective, the reports states.

For the first time in years, the province's wage scale out-performed the rest of the country in 2004, with average real (after-inflation) hourly earnings of $18.48, largely because labour shortages drove wage hikes and overtime in construction and other industries using skilled trades.

Looking at what workers were actually paid last year, B.C. comes in second behind Alberta for salaried workers, and fourth for hourly workers behind Ontario, Alberta and the Canadian average. But prices in B.C. have only increased by about 12 per cent since 1997, while climbing by 20 per cent in Alberta, and 16 per cent in Ontario and nationally. As a result, wages in B.C. go farther, the CAs say.

In addition, 45,500 new jobs were created, a pace matched only by Alberta when compared with population gains. B.C. also had the country's second narrowest gender gap, with females earning 86.7 per cent of male wages, versus 85 per cent nationally. Manitoba leads at 89 per cent.



Women now account for 37 per cent of all managers in the province but more and more of them are also breaking down gender stereotypes by becoming welders, plumbers, electricians and equipment operators, said Bev Briscoe, chairwoman of the province's Industry Training Authority.

As job growth accelerates and retirements outpace the flow of entry-level workers, she said there is a unique opportunity for young people to find well paid and viable careers in the trades.

"Traditionally, parents have wanted their kids to go to university but we have to make sure that they are aware of opportunities in the trades, and that children can earn post-secondary credentials that will give them mobility and a career."

Unfortunately, while 59.3 per cent of the workforce has a post-secondary diploma, putting B.C. on top of the West, it continues to lag the national average of 61.6 per cent.

As well, B.C.'s employment rate (number of employed persons as a percentage of the population age 15 and over) is the lowest in the West at 60.8 per cent versus 62.7 per cent nationally. The CAs blame that on erratic job creation during the past 10 years coupled with steady growth in population.

The study released Monday is the second of three sections of the BC Check-Up. The CAs will issue their assessment of B.C. as a place to live on October 11.



B.C.'S JOB SECTOR: BABY BOOM AND BUST

1,043,000 jobs to open by 2015

By 2010 it is predicted that -- for the first time ever -- more people will be leaving the B.C. workforce than entering it.

Here's where the shortfalls are forecast to occur:

2003-2015:

• 913,000 jobs to fill through retirement and job growth
• 130,000 jobs through Olympics and related projects

The shortfall:

680,000 B.C. students in Kindergarten to Grade 12. In the unlikely event 100 per cent enter the job force here, the shortfall is still 363,000